Unjinxed - Four Fists, P.O.S, Astronautalis
Anti-Matter - King Geedorah, Mr Fantastik
I said I’d never do a list, but I can break down guys on other people’s lists.
The Ghidorah series will be where I break down the Top 3 non debuted specs at each position from the MLB Pipeline T100 rankings.
Since Nick Kurtz has debuted, we will add Xavier Isaac to the fight.
Jac Caglianone
Jac Caglianone is so hot right now—he’s been murdering the baseball since his promotion to AAA, reaching base in 28 of his last 29 games. He has a new article pop up everyday. GM has been asked on when he is coming up. The Cags hype has turned into a hype storm.
Jac’s on base streak was snapped at 26 on 5/27. He went 3-4 with a double the next night. He has 11 multi hit games during this stretch. That’s how he would keep a streak going is with hits. He isn’t going to hit double digit walks.
He has played mostly 1B since converting to a full time hitter with some LF and RF sprinkled in. Since being drafted he has played 76 games at 1B, including the AZFL, with 6 errors and a .988% Fielding%. That’s not elite D but it 100% will play. The MLB average is around .980 so it can work. Seems like a bit of a waste considering the arm he has, maybe some Joey Gallo with less swing and miss? Since being promoted the Royals have had him in RF as much as 1B. Seems like if he could play out there his arm would be extremely useful.
Jac is a masher, he is going to mash. FG graded him 70 game power and 80 raw. The issue will be his hit tool and so far it’s not looking like an issue that will hold him back. In the 75 games he has played in A+/AA/AAA he has a 20.7% K rate. As long as he doesn’t get overly chase happy that power will shine. His small sample in AAA is showing an issue with the off speed and breaking stuff. You throw it hard he is going to launch it into orbit.
Here is some comparisons on his metrics by pitch
This is a struggling Anthony Santander
Santander is STRUGGLING but his whiff% is lower than Jac’s
And here is what Agustin Ramirez (97th on pipeline, but #1 in our hearts) is doing
It’s a super small sample, but the whiff% and chase% on breaking and offspeed pitches have to come down. It might improve as the sample gets bigger, but if it doesn’t, Jac could run into some bumps in the road.
He has a 32.6% HR/FB rate so far between the two levels. It’s RIDICULOUS stuff. The launch angle (LA) in AAA is at 14 degrees. That isn’t the highest LA, but it should keep the ground ball % (GB%) manageable with a very solid line drive rate (LD%). It’s over 25% this season. Cags could hit for average besides just power.
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Back to the breakdowns
Bryce Eldridge
Besides both playing 1B, Bryce is similar to Cags in the fact they both have huge power. Bryce also was tagged with a 70 game power and 80 grade raw power from FG. Giants ran him up the chain last season. He saw all 4 levels of the minors with 8 in AAA. He did not go off like Cags is going off now. He hit no home runs and struck out 31.4% of the time. He also showed just a 7.9 degree LA but his LD% have been 24%+ at every level. I am going to go with that being a small sample size and that it’s somewhere closer to Jac’s LA.
That’s pretty good, but it isn’t Jac’s level of good.
He has been on base 14 of his last 17
Big power lefty doing big power things. He has more swing and miss in his game. He is also a full year younger than Jac.
I’m not a crystal ball guy. I don’t want to sit here and say, well as he ages the Ks will go down. There is no guarantee it gets better. At 6’7”, he will have swing and miss. His chase and whiff don’t look terrible, but without statcast data, we can’t hone it down to what specifically is the issue. He has been on this heater with the Ks not coming down. He could be in his sweet spot. Less is better but if they don’t get worse it could work with that thunder.
Another thing that could be an issue is the glove. In 122 games at 1B he has 23 errors with a .976% Fielding%. That’s below average. For comparison gold glover, TJ Rumfield, has 20 errors and a .991% Fielding% in 275 games. Bryce isn’t any better in RF with a .929%. The glove could be an issue if it doesn’t improve. DH with some spot starts at 1B to keep enough eligibility in your league? Sure, but being at least average with the glove will really help him become a star.
Xavier Isaac
Xavier was also a 1st round pick in 2022, out of HS. He is still just 21 with 230 games played as a pro. He has managed a 150 wRC+ with a .883 OPS for his career. He also got the 70 game power and 80 raw power Fangraphs future grade. There has been some hype on his name. He is listed at 6’3” 240 lbs. He lost some weight and started running. Showing more speed than anyone anticipated with 28 SB to go along with his 42 home runs.
Surface stats are pretty solid. Everyone likes a little bit of speed baked into their power bats. The other 2 have some warts/red flags. Jac is more like small warts while Bryce has some red flags that need to be monitored. Xavier has some alarms, sirens, and air horns going off.
I really don’t like the Ks and whiff%. Especially since he hardly chases. He doesn’t swing very much either. When he is, he is missing too damn much. He has a higher whiff% than swing%! When was the last time you saw that? Sure he walks, but he doesn’t swing. I don’t think that plays in the Show. It’s already happening. As he has moved up, his Ks have gotten worse.
Here is his AA stats from his promotion 8/2/2024 to now
The Ks are in the abyss. The stats look solid enough for a 142 wRC+. The elite power hasn’t shown up. The bat has to leave your shoulder for that to happen. Look, those Ks, won’t play. They just won’t. You can have all the tools in the world but if you K too much you can’t make it. Look at Rece Hinds, he gets on a heater, gets promoted, and then he turns into Paul Bunyan vs MLB arms. I know the crystal ball is powerful, but at some point you have to say wait a minute. Xavier is young, but there are some major changes that need to happen. If you’re all in on Xavier in your dynasty league, then you’re really watching this last 8 game stretch.
He has hit 4 bombs while lowering the Ks to a level you can live with. If the Ks stay in that range that will change everything.
Besides the Ks he has a GB% north of 50% in AA. Another thing I hate is ground balls. It kills everything, nothing has a worse average or slug than ground balls. Don’t hit half of the balls you do hit, from barely swinging, into the ground.
This is Niko Kavadas from AA-AAA. Looks pretty similar to what Xavier is doing so far. It didn’t work for Niko. Niko didn’t play the ground and pound game either.
Outside of that, let’s say he is turning a big corner and starts doing the right things at the plate for the rest of the season.
In 175 games at 1B he has 26 errors with a .980% Fielding%. It’s around average. So IF the bat turns around he could be an average fielder. That could help.
Just because it’s what I do. Abimelec Ortiz gets 0 love outside of us fantasy guys.
Abibombs has a .991% Fielding% at 1B with 23 errors in 317 games. He plays a better 1B than any of the 3.
He hasn’t gone nuclear, but he’s showing a lower whiff rate and fewer strikeouts. He does chase way too much, he has a higher O-Swing% than Xavier has O-Contact%. He has a crazy ability to hit the pitch with an absurd 71.8% O-Contact. He also has been getting hot over the last couple of weeks with 4 bombs in his last 14 games.
Abi has one thing that the other 3 do not, he wasn’t on a list, and he was free.
So coming in I didn’t expect this to be very close. It’s Jac as a clear cut #1. I also was expecting to find some things about Xavier that could make his case. I was dead wrong. There was too many things I refuse to deal with in dynasty. If I had Xavier I’d have already moved him or would actively try to move him for another “high up the list” type of spec. I’d use this hot streak to move him. If you’re a XI truther than you are looking at this 8 games as the future. It could be, I just don’t place bets like that on highly touted specs. Jac could have some issues, but he looks like he has the ceiling of an upper tier masher who lives in the middle of a lineup for years. We will see how it all plays out here soon. The Royals need more bats. Bryce is young and mashing. He has K issues and you need those to work themselves out, at the very least not get any worse. Xavier needs way less Ks, less ground balls, and more swings to do damage.
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